Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). McBain wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 76.7%
Defensive zone
McBain 90.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 82.3%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
McBain
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
McBain
Stamkos
Last 10: McBain 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
8
McBain
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
4
3
McBain
Stamkos
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
McBain
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
50.5% (9,825)
-2.4%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
55.2% (1,729)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
49.6% (827)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McBain is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (995).
McBain shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
McBain
Stamkos
Home
49.1% (1,379)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
McBain
Stamkos
P1
47.1%
49.2%
P2
47.4%
52.7%
P3
45.4%
50.9%
OT
37.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 18:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |