Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Zegras 39.5% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 52.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 92.3%
Neutral zone
McBain 80.7%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
McBain
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McBain
Zegras
Last 10: McBain 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
McBain
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
0
McBain
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
39.0% (1,703)
+9.1%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
38.5% (148)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
25.0% (8)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, McBain has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
McBain
Zegras
Home
49.1% (1,379)
40.5% (908)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
37.3% (951)
By Period
McBain
Zegras
P1
47.1%
40.0%
P2
47.4%
38.6%
P3
45.4%
38.2%
OT
37.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Jack McBain |