Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.6% vs Zegras 40.2% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 50.4%
Defensive zone
McBain 93.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 82.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
McBain
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McBain
Zegras
Last 10: McBain 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
McBain
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
0
McBain
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
3
2
McBain
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,257)
39.5% (1,582)
+8.5%
Power Play
46.9% (49)
41.4% (133)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
35.2% (304)
28.6% (7)
+6.6%
On even strength, McBain has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McBain is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,631).
McBain shoots left. Zegras is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,170).
Home / Away
McBain
Zegras
Home
48.8% (1,321)
40.6% (833)
Away
44.1% (1,289)
38.7% (889)
By Period
McBain
Zegras
P1
46.2%
41.2%
P2
47.4%
39.1%
P3
45.8%
38.5%
OT
42.9%
35.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
46.5%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:18 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:38 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Jack McBain |