Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roslovic wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roslovic 52.1% vs Hertl 57.4% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roslovic 71.5%
Defensive zone
Roslovic 69.9%
Neutral zone
Roslovic 69.4%
Result
Jack Roslovic favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Roslovic
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Roslovic
Hertl
Last 6: Roslovic 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Roslovic
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Roslovic
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Roslovic
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roslovic
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (219)
58.5% (845)
-6.0%
Power Play
57.9% (19)
56.2% (281)
+1.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roslovic is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (181).
Roslovic shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Roslovic
Hertl
Home
49.6% (121)
60.0% (582)
Away
56.4% (117)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Roslovic
Hertl
P1
52.2%
52.1%
P2
56.6%
63.6%
P3
50.6%
58.8%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.3%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roslovic
58.0%▲
52.5%
52.9%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |