Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Guentzel 48.1% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 85.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 51.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Evans
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
49.1% (230)
+6.5%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
44.9% (118)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
46.2% (26)
+9.0%
On power play, Evans has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Guentzel is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Evans
Guentzel
Home
54.7% (402)
50.2% (205)
Away
56.9% (341)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Evans
Guentzel
P1
57.9%
47.6%
P2
55.2%
49.0%
P3
53.6%
46.2%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |