Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Guentzel 46.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 79.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 97.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 76.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Evans
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Evans
Guentzel
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
2
Evans
Guentzel
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Guentzel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
46.4% (715)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
46.6% (298)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
43.2% (44)
+3.9%
On power play, Evans has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Guentzel is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Evans
Guentzel
Home
53.3% (2,621)
48.9% (583)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Evans
Guentzel
P1
54.0%
48.0%
P2
50.9%
45.5%
P3
52.0%
46.0%
OT
46.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 09:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |