Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Tavares 56.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 83.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Evans
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Evans
Tavares
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Evans
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
11
2
Evans
Tavares
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Evans
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
57.7% (975)
-2.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
56.0% (250)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
52.2% (23)
+3.0%
On power play, Evans has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Evans
Tavares
Home
54.7% (402)
57.4% (636)
Away
56.9% (341)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Evans
Tavares
P1
57.9%
57.5%
P2
55.2%
56.9%
P3
53.6%
57.5%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |