Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 43 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Tavares 54.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 61-47 in 108 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 85.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Evans
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
61
(108 meetings)
47
61
Evans
Tavares
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
38
Evans
Tavares
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
32
10
Evans
Tavares
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
13
Evans
Tavares
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
54.0% (16,169)
-0.3%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.4% (4,298)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
50.5% (624)
-3.4%
On power play, Evans has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Home / Away
Evans
Tavares
Home
53.3% (2,621)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Evans
Tavares
P1
54.0%
55.0%
P2
50.9%
54.1%
P3
52.0%
54.0%
OT
46.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |