Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 54.9%). Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Staal 54.6% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 78.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 73.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Evans
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Evans
Staal
Last 10: Evans 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
5
Evans
Staal
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
3
Evans
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
56.2% (989)
-0.6%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
66.0% (159)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
42.7% (253)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Evans
Staal
Home
54.7% (402)
55.4% (699)
Away
56.9% (341)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Evans
Staal
P1
57.9%
55.7%
P2
55.2%
54.7%
P3
53.6%
53.4%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 09:19 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 03:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |