Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.9%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Eller 55.0% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 67.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 66.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Evans
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Evans
Eller
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
2
Evans
Eller
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
3
Evans
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
56.0% (459)
-0.4%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
77.8% (9)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
51.9% (54)
+3.3%
On power play, Eller has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Evans
Eller
Home
54.7% (402)
52.6% (215)
Away
56.9% (341)
58.3% (307)
By Period
Evans
Eller
P1
57.9%
54.1%
P2
55.2%
57.6%
P3
53.6%
56.2%
Final 5 min
54.5%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |