Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 67.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 95.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 80.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Evans
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Evans
Scheifele
Last 7: Evans 5-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
2
Evans
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
46.5% (919)
+9.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
48.7% (187)
+24.0%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (54)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Evans
Scheifele
Home
54.7% (402)
46.6% (605)
Away
56.9% (341)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Evans
Scheifele
P1
57.9%
52.3%
P2
55.2%
45.3%
P3
53.6%
43.9%
OT
66.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |