Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Domi 50.6% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Domi 79.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 79.7%
Neutral zone
Domi 52.0%
Result
Max Domi favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Evans
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Evans
Domi
Last 7: Evans 3-4 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
2
Evans
Domi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Domi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
0
2
Evans
Domi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
49.8% (297)
+5.8%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
60.0% (30)
+12.7%
On power play, Evans has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Domi is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Home / Away
Evans
Domi
Home
54.7% (402)
51.1% (184)
Away
56.9% (341)
50.3% (143)
By Period
Evans
Domi
P1
57.9%
45.9%
P2
55.2%
51.8%
P3
53.6%
55.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Domi
46.0%▼
51.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Max Domi |