Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 49.8% vs Zibanejad 52.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 79.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 54.1%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 55.7%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Evans
Zibanejad
Last 7: Evans 5-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Zibanejad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (739)
54.0% (955)
-2.7%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
55.6% (243)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (172)
35.0% (140)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
52.1% (503)
55.2% (656)
Away
47.0% (423)
49.6% (682)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
50.5%
56.3%
P2
47.7%
50.0%
P3
51.3%
51.2%
OT
40.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
49.8%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:17 | Offensive | Jake Evans |