Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 64.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 83.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Evans
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Evans
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Evans
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
53.3% (807)
+2.3%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
47.6% (42)
+25.1%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
46.3% (147)
+8.9%
On power play, Evans has a +25.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Evans
Zibanejad
Home
54.7% (402)
49.8% (466)
Away
56.9% (341)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Evans
Zibanejad
P1
57.9%
52.9%
P2
55.2%
51.2%
P3
53.6%
51.7%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |