Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Geekie 47.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 73.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 69.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Evans
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Evans
Geekie
Last 9: Evans 5-4 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
4
Evans
Geekie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Geekie
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
46.7% (120)
+8.9%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
48.6% (35)
+24.1%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
0.0% (3)
+55.2%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Geekie is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Evans
Geekie
Home
54.7% (402)
46.8% (77)
Away
56.9% (341)
45.7% (81)
By Period
Evans
Geekie
P1
57.9%
42.4%
P2
55.2%
49.1%
P3
53.6%
47.6%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
35.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |