Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Paul 53.6% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 74.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 60.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Evans
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
53.7% (354)
+1.9%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
59.0% (61)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
52.9% (34)
+2.3%
On power play, Evans has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
54.7% (402)
55.1% (216)
Away
56.9% (341)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
57.9%
54.9%
P2
55.2%
54.5%
P3
53.6%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jake Evans |