Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.3%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Paul 52.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 24-15 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 75.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Evans
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
15
(39 meetings)
24
15
Evans
Paul
Last 10: Evans 8-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
2
Evans
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
13
7
Evans
Paul
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
5
6
Evans
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
52.6% (3,823)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.2% (484)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
46.9% (576)
+0.2%
On power play, Evans has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Evans
Paul
Home
53.3% (2,621)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Evans
Paul
P1
54.0%
53.8%
P2
50.9%
51.0%
P3
52.0%
52.2%
OT
46.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:39 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Jake Evans |