Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Evans wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 53.9% vs Cates 45.2% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 50.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 95.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 79.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Evans
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
7
1
Evans
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (349)
44.2% (566)
+9.4%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
44.0% (84)
+26.0%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (161)
50.0% (38)
+5.9%
On power play, Evans has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
54.1% (290)
45.1% (350)
Away
55.2% (230)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
60.1%
46.8%
P2
53.5%
46.5%
P3
50.3%
40.8%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
54.6%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |