Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 64.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.3%
Neutral zone
Evans 83.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 83.2%
83.2%
16.8%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
4
Evans
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
11
3
Evans
Cates
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Evans
Cates
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
44.1% (2,786)
+9.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
42.9% (254)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
34.9% (373)
+12.2%
On power play, Evans has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
53.3% (2,621)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
54.0%
44.5%
P2
50.9%
43.7%
P3
52.0%
41.2%
OT
46.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |