Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 55.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 84.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Evans
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Evans
Cates
Last 10: Evans 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Evans
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
7
1
Evans
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
45.5% (756)
+10.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
42.1% (114)
+30.6%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
44.7% (47)
+10.5%
On power play, Evans has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Evans
Cates
Home
54.7% (402)
46.2% (468)
Away
56.9% (341)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Evans
Cates
P1
57.9%
46.0%
P2
55.2%
47.5%
P3
53.6%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
18.2%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |