Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Zacha 51.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 77.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 65.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Evans
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Evans
Zacha
Last 8: Evans 3-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Evans
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Evans
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
53.0% (700)
+2.6%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
54.1% (109)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
39.2% (74)
+16.0%
On power play, Evans has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Evans
Zacha
Home
54.7% (402)
51.6% (438)
Away
56.9% (341)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Evans
Zacha
P1
57.9%
57.0%
P2
55.2%
48.9%
P3
53.6%
50.5%
OT
66.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |