Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Thomas 51.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 79.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Evans
Thomas
Last 5: Evans 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Evans
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
50.3% (652)
+5.3%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
61.5% (104)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
54.2% (120)
+1.0%
On power play, Evans has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
54.7% (402)
52.0% (400)
Away
56.9% (341)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
57.9%
49.6%
P2
55.2%
55.4%
P3
53.6%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |