Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Thomas 51.7% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 83.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 65.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 62.0%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Evans
Thomas
Last 5: Evans 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Evans
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Evans
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
50.2% (635)
+5.4%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
61.0% (100)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
53.4% (118)
+1.8%
On power play, Evans has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
54.7% (402)
52.0% (400)
Away
56.9% (341)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
57.9%
49.4%
P2
55.2%
55.2%
P3
53.6%
50.7%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Thomas
48.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |