Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.6%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Thomas 51.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 80.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 79.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 52.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Evans
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Evans
Thomas
Last 10: Evans 6-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
4
7
Evans
Thomas
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
10
3
Evans
Thomas
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
4
6
Evans
Thomas
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
51.1% (5,387)
+2.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.8% (927)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
50.2% (697)
-3.1%
On power play, Evans has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Evans shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,044).
Home / Away
Evans
Thomas
Home
53.3% (2,621)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Evans
Thomas
P1
54.0%
50.7%
P2
50.9%
53.0%
P3
52.0%
50.8%
OT
46.5%
59.2%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:24 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:05 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |