Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Thompson 45.2% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 63.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 87.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Evans
Thompson
Last 9: Evans 7-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
1
Evans
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
44.6% (661)
+11.0%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
48.4% (95)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
33.3% (33)
+21.9%
On power play, Evans has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
54.7% (402)
45.7% (411)
Away
56.9% (341)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
57.9%
47.7%
P2
55.2%
45.7%
P3
53.6%
40.5%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |