Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 69.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 96.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 88.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Evans
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
17
(44 meetings)
27
17
Evans
Thompson
Last 10: Evans 8-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
4
Evans
Thompson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
9
7
Evans
Thompson
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
12
6
Evans
Thompson
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
42.9% (3,540)
+10.8%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
46.9% (373)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
33.6% (265)
+13.5%
On power play, Evans has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Evans shoots right. Thompson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,149).
Home / Away
Evans
Thompson
Home
53.3% (2,621)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Evans
Thompson
P1
54.0%
44.4%
P2
50.9%
43.7%
P3
52.0%
40.0%
OT
46.5%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:29 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |