Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs Staal 54.6% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 73.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Guentzel
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Guentzel
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Guentzel
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Guentzel
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
1
0
Guentzel
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
56.2% (989)
-7.1%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
66.0% (159)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
42.7% (253)
+3.5%
On power play, Staal has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Staal
Home
50.2% (205)
55.4% (699)
Away
44.4% (169)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Guentzel
Staal
P1
47.6%
55.7%
P2
49.0%
54.7%
P3
46.2%
53.4%
OT
42.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |