Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Guentzel 90.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 70.6%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 75.3%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Guentzel
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Guentzel
Staal
Last 10: Guentzel 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Guentzel
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
6
Guentzel
Staal
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
1
Guentzel
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (715)
55.9% (14,654)
-9.5%
Power Play
46.6% (298)
62.7% (1,762)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (44)
47.9% (2,907)
-4.7%
On power play, Staal has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Guentzel shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Staal
Home
48.9% (583)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
43.2% (474)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Guentzel
Staal
P1
48.0%
55.2%
P2
45.5%
55.9%
P3
46.0%
54.8%
OT
33.3%
56.2%
Final 5 min
43.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 17:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |