Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.2% vs Poehling 46.9% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 84.5%
Defensive zone
Poehling 82.8%
Neutral zone
Poehling 60.4%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Guentzel
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Guentzel
Poehling
Last 5: Guentzel 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (116)
48.4% (440)
+4.2%
Power Play
40.5% (79)
50.0% (6)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
39.4% (132)
+4.4%
On power play, Poehling has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Guentzel is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (130).
Guentzel shoots left. Poehling is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Poehling
Home
53.2% (94)
48.2% (222)
Away
42.7% (117)
45.2% (356)
By Period
Guentzel
Poehling
P1
53.7%
54.1%
P2
46.8%
40.5%
P3
44.3%
44.9%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
45.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
46.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
46.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |