Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.7% vs Poehling 48.3% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 89.0%
Defensive zone
Poehling 91.1%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 52.0%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Guentzel
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Guentzel
Poehling
Last 7: Guentzel 3-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (715)
49.6% (2,780)
-3.2%
Power Play
46.6% (298)
51.6% (93)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (44)
41.7% (635)
+1.5%
On power play, Poehling has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Guentzel shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Poehling
Home
48.9% (583)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
43.2% (474)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Guentzel
Poehling
P1
48.0%
50.8%
P2
45.5%
47.1%
P3
46.0%
47.2%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |