Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 51.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 69.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 60.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Guentzel
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Guentzel
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Guentzel
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
50.5% (878)
-1.4%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
53.5% (144)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
44.3% (61)
+1.9%
On power play, Aho has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Aho
Home
50.2% (205)
53.8% (571)
Away
44.4% (169)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Guentzel
Aho
P1
47.6%
49.0%
P2
49.0%
51.7%
P3
46.2%
50.3%
OT
42.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |