Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Guentzel leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 61.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 74.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 76.6%
23.4%
76.6%
Guentzel
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Guentzel
Aho
Last 10: Guentzel 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
4
0
Guentzel
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Guentzel
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
2
0
Guentzel
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (715)
50.2% (6,646)
-3.8%
Power Play
46.6% (298)
58.9% (1,310)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (44)
46.5% (465)
-3.3%
On power play, Aho has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Guentzel shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Aho
Home
48.9% (583)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
43.2% (474)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Guentzel
Aho
P1
48.0%
51.1%
P2
45.5%
52.1%
P3
46.0%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
43.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |