Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Guentzel wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 46.5% vs Aho 51.3% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 59.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 89.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 74.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
Guentzel
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Guentzel
Aho
Last 8: Guentzel 5-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
4
0
Guentzel
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Guentzel
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (601)
50.1% (6,415)
-3.5%
Power Play
45.6% (259)
59.1% (1,297)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
46.0% (446)
-4.8%
On power play, Aho has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Guentzel shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Aho
Home
49.2% (472)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
42.7% (422)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Guentzel
Aho
P1
49.2%
51.2%
P2
44.3%
52.1%
P3
45.4%
50.8%
OT
16.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
41.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
46.0%▼
48.0%
46.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |