Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Benn wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 52.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Benn leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Benn
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Benn
Hertl
Last 10: Benn 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
12
6
Benn
Hertl
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Benn
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Benn
5
1
Benn
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,456)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.4%
Power Play
52.6% (2,055)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (515)
46.3% (806)
+3.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,271).
Benn shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Benn
Hertl
Home
54.9% (4,550)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
51.0% (4,492)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Benn
Hertl
P1
51.9%
53.6%
P2
52.6%
54.2%
P3
54.0%
55.3%
OT
62.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
46.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 09:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 18:38 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:07 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 18:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |