Jason Dickinson vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 84.0%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 83.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.8%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Last 8: Dickinson 4-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Dickinson
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
4
0
Dickinson
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (670)
49.7% (1,038)
+2.2%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
63.7% (157)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (156)
34.4% (32)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Dickinson has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dickinson is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Dickinson shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Dickinson
MacKinnon
Home
48.7% (431)
53.1% (618)
Away
50.7% (404)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Dickinson
MacKinnon
P1
43.4%
49.3%
P2
54.9%
53.0%
P3
49.6%
50.7%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |