Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.7% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 64.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 58.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Dickinson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Dickinson
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
2
0
Dickinson
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (670)
54.6% (271)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (156)
54.4% (90)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Dickinson shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Sturm
Home
48.7% (431)
53.0% (168)
Away
50.7% (404)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Dickinson
Sturm
P1
43.4%
58.2%
P2
54.9%
53.2%
P3
49.6%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |