Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.9% vs Sturm 54.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 68.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 66.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 68.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Dickinson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Dickinson
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
2
0
Dickinson
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (503)
54.1% (233)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
59.5% (74)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dickinson is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Dickinson shoots left. Sturm is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Sturm
Home
49.0% (345)
54.4% (149)
Away
50.9% (273)
56.3% (158)
By Period
Dickinson
Sturm
P1
43.9%
57.1%
P2
57.3%
55.0%
P3
47.2%
53.7%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.8%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |