Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 47.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Dickinson leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 74.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 84.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 82.2%
17.8%
82.2%
Dickinson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Dickinson
Sturm
Last 10: Dickinson 8-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
3
1
Dickinson
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
4
1
Dickinson
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dickinson
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,390)
57.1% (2,719)
-8.1%
Power Play
51.1% (141)
61.3% (62)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (890)
51.0% (498)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dickinson is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,470).
Dickinson shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Sturm
Home
49.3% (2,791)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
46.0% (2,630)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Dickinson
Sturm
P1
47.0%
56.5%
P2
48.2%
54.9%
P3
47.7%
57.4%
OT
52.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
47.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:16 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 09:26 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |