Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Beagle 55.8% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 83.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Nelson
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Nelson
Beagle
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
2
Nelson
Beagle
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
2
Nelson
Beagle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
0
4
Nelson
Beagle
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
56.8% (799)
-13.8%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
64.7% (17)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
54.6% (291)
-10.3%
On even strength, Beagle has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Beagle is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (783).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beagle
Home
41.9% (391)
57.6% (552)
Away
45.5% (400)
55.1% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Beagle
P1
47.1%
56.9%
P2
43.0%
59.0%
P3
40.9%
54.0%
OT
63.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
43.7%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 04:41 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 19:09 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |