Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.9% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 63.8%
Defensive zone
Beagle 84.9%
Neutral zone
Beagle 68.1%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Beagle
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Beagle
Lorentz
Last 5: Beagle 3-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (353)
46.5% (101)
+10.7%
Power Play
87.5% (16)
33.3% (3)
+54.2%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (95)
37.5% (8)
+14.1%
On power play, Beagle has a +54.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Beagle is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Beagle shoots right. Lorentz is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Beagle
Lorentz
Home
62.0% (200)
49.1% (53)
Away
53.4% (264)
42.4% (59)
By Period
Beagle
Lorentz
P1
55.8%
48.6%
P2
60.1%
36.7%
P3
54.5%
57.7%
Final 5 min
63.6%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
57.1%
Lorentz
58.0%▲
47.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |