Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Lorentz 48.7% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 57.9%
Defensive zone
Beagle 92.1%
Neutral zone
Beagle 71.9%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Beagle
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Beagle
Lorentz
Last 5: Beagle 3-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Lorentz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Lorentz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
49.1% (1,111)
+8.4%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
48.0% (25)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
41.3% (75)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Beagle is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (4,667).
Beagle shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (443).
Home / Away
Beagle
Lorentz
Home
59.1% (3,228)
50.8% (595)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
46.6% (616)
By Period
Beagle
Lorentz
P1
57.4%
52.8%
P2
57.1%
47.4%
P3
56.2%
46.3%
OT
41.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Lorentz
58.0%▲
47.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |