Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Leo Carlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 69.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 92.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 90.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Pageau
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pageau
Carlsson
Last 7: Pageau 5-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Pageau
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Carlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
45.0% (695)
+14.4%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
46.4% (84)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
32.9% (85)
+26.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carlsson
Home
58.4% (430)
42.5% (435)
Away
61.0% (559)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Pageau
Carlsson
P1
55.4%
45.3%
P2
61.8%
38.7%
P3
61.5%
48.5%
OT
75.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
63.1%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |