Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Leo Carlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 73.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 94.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 91.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
Pageau
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Pageau
Carlsson
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
2
Pageau
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
2
Pageau
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
2
Pageau
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
40.9% (1,878)
+14.9%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
42.9% (156)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
34.7% (121)
+14.9%
On even strength, Pageau has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,869).
Pageau shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Pageau
Carlsson
Home
56.3% (6,267)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Pageau
Carlsson
P1
54.7%
43.3%
P2
56.3%
36.2%
P3
53.5%
43.3%
OT
54.4%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |