Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mark Kastelic
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (59.8% vs 59.7%). Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Kastelic 58.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 59.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 67.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 54.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Pageau
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pageau
Kastelic
Last 5: Pageau 1-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Pageau
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Pageau
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
60.8% (362)
-1.5%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
83.3% (6)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
56.2% (146)
+3.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (257).
Pageau shoots right. Kastelic is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kastelic
Home
58.1% (418)
60.3% (242)
Away
61.0% (559)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Pageau
Kastelic
P1
55.3%
58.9%
P2
61.5%
57.3%
P3
61.6%
64.0%
OT
75.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
63.2%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |