Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mark Kastelic
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 71.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 56.0%
Neutral zone
Pageau 55.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Pageau
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Pageau
Kastelic
Last 10: Pageau 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Pageau
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
3
Pageau
Kastelic
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,514)
57.0% (1,635)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.0% (1,007)
80.0% (25)
-23.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
53.8% (279)
-4.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Pageau is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,732).
Pageau shoots right. Kastelic is 58.5% vs right-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kastelic
Home
56.3% (6,255)
58.7% (904)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
55.2% (1,035)
By Period
Pageau
Kastelic
P1
54.7%
58.6%
P2
56.3%
56.5%
P3
53.5%
55.6%
OT
54.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.9%
59.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
54.8%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |