Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Matt Duchene
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Duchene 51.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 70.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 58.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Pageau
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Pageau
Duchene
Last 7: Pageau 3-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Pageau
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
51.1% (366)
+8.3%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
61.5% (65)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
16.7% (6)
+43.0%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +43.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Pageau
Duchene
Home
58.4% (430)
51.7% (201)
Away
61.0% (559)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Pageau
Duchene
P1
55.4%
49.0%
P2
61.8%
57.1%
P3
61.5%
49.2%
OT
75.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |