Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Morgan Frost
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Frost 56.4% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 83.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 71.0%
Neutral zone
Pageau 55.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Pageau
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Pageau
Frost
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
Pageau
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
1
Pageau
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
56.0% (755)
+3.4%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
60.1% (173)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
88.9% (9)
-29.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +29.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Pageau
Frost
Home
58.4% (430)
57.3% (497)
Away
61.0% (559)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Pageau
Frost
P1
55.4%
60.2%
P2
61.8%
56.0%
P3
61.5%
54.8%
OT
75.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |