Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.4%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 51.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pageau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
49.7% (1,038)
+9.7%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
63.7% (157)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
34.4% (32)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
58.4% (430)
53.1% (618)
Away
61.0% (559)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
55.4%
49.3%
P2
61.8%
53.0%
P3
61.5%
50.7%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |