Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Pageau wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 51-36 in 87 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 70.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 94.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 89.5%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Pageau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
36
(87 meetings)
51
36
Pageau
MacKinnon
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
15
15
Pageau
MacKinnon
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
4
Pageau
MacKinnon
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
23
17
Pageau
MacKinnon
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
46.1% (11,264)
+9.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
53.2% (1,421)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
42.8% (502)
+6.8%
On even strength, Pageau has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pageau is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,739).
Pageau shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Pageau
MacKinnon
Home
56.3% (6,267)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Pageau
MacKinnon
P1
54.7%
47.4%
P2
56.3%
46.6%
P3
53.5%
46.1%
OT
54.4%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:11 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 01:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:56 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:30 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |