Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Dowd 48.6% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 76.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 54.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Pageau
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
51.0% (671)
+8.4%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
0.0% (2)
+69.0%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
41.5% (224)
+18.2%
On power play, Pageau has a +69.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
58.4% (430)
48.2% (471)
Away
61.0% (559)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
55.4%
48.3%
P2
61.8%
46.8%
P3
61.5%
51.0%
OT
75.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |