Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Nic Dowd
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 32 meetings). Pageau wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 38-36 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 80.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Pageau
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
38
(74 meetings)
36
38
Pageau
Dowd
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
26
6
Pageau
Dowd
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
24
Pageau
Dowd
29 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
8
Pageau
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
52.3% (6,036)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
56.1% (164)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
44.1% (1,638)
+5.5%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pageau is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,739).
Pageau shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Pageau
Dowd
Home
56.3% (6,267)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Pageau
Dowd
P1
54.7%
51.5%
P2
56.3%
50.4%
P3
53.5%
50.3%
OT
54.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |