Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Paul 53.6% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 51.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 76.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 76.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pageau
Paul
Last 5: Pageau 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Pageau
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
53.7% (354)
+5.6%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
59.0% (61)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
52.9% (34)
+6.8%
On power play, Pageau has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
58.1% (418)
55.1% (216)
Away
61.0% (559)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
55.3%
54.9%
P2
61.5%
54.5%
P3
61.6%
54.3%
OT
75.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
63.2%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |