Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 23-9 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 94.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 98.3%
Neutral zone
Pageau 97.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 97.2%
97.2%
2.8%
Pageau
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
9
(32 meetings)
23
9
Pageau
Cates
Last 10: Pageau 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
2
Pageau
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
3
Pageau
Cates
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
4
Pageau
Cates
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,514)
44.1% (2,786)
+11.7%
Power Play
57.0% (1,007)
42.9% (254)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
34.9% (373)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,864).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
56.3% (6,255)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
54.7%
44.5%
P2
56.3%
43.7%
P3
53.5%
41.2%
OT
54.4%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.9%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
54.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 04:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 14:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |